The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is set to release its Weekly Gas Storage Report on Thursday at 10:30am EST. Natural gas prices for January ’16 delivery were relatively flat early Thursday morning at $2.056 per mmBtu.
The median estimate of industry analysts is for a withdrawal of -64 Bcf. If actually reported, the withdrawal would be 13 Bcf more than the 2014 reported withdrawal (-51 Bcf) and 15 Bcf less than the five-year average (-79 Bcf).
NatGasInvestor.com estimates that the withdrawal will total -62 Bcf. The current range of estimates from industry analysts is for a withdrawal from -48 Bcf to -75 Bcf.
enerJay LLC, the second-ranked analyst according to NatGasInvestor’s Analyst Accuracy Rankings, estimates that the withdrawal will total -70 Bcf. Meanwhile, JPMorgan, the fourth ranked analyst, estimates that the withdrawal will total -63 Bcf.
Since last Thursday’s report, natural gas prices have dropped over seven cents. Broader commodity pressure has contributed to the decline, but the lack of significant cold throughout the U.S. to drive heating demand have kept prices near their lows.
Thursday’s 06Z run picked up some additional natural gas weighted demand days, but overall forecasted demand is still low.
“The shorts have made a killing,” said Steve Kingston, a reporter for NatGasInvestor.com. “But I think the risk reward for shorting at these levels outside of a short-term momentum swing is unwise.”
“I expect a large short squeeze come the first sign of significant cold and thus demand in January. As we have reported, most forecasters have indicated a late start to winter due to El Nino effects. When that late start begins, the rise could certainly be quick. Let’s see how it plays out,” said Kingston.
To see the report at 10:30am EST, visit this link.
To contact the reporter for this story, please email firstname.lastname@example.org.