The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is set to release its Weekly Gas Storage Report on Thursday at 10:30am EST. Natural gas prices for December ’15 delivery were up over 3 cents early Thursday morning at $2.335 per mmBtu.
The median estimate of industry analysts is for an injection of 69 Bcf. If actually reported, the injection would be 17 Bcf less than the 2014 reported injection (87 Bcf) and 12 Bcf less than the five-year average (81 Bcf).
NatGasInvestor.com estimates that the injection will total 71 Bcf. The current range of estimates from industry analysts is for an injection from 62 Bcf to 85 Bcf.
Wells Fargo, the top-ranked analyst according to NatGasInvestor’s Analyst Accuracy Rankings, estimates that the injection will total 72 Bcf.
After touching new lows earlier in the week on the back of lack of foreseeable demand and front-month contract expiry, higher prices Thursday morning showed traders and investors are optimistic for a bullish inventory report or are taking advantage of three-year lows prior to the start of withdrawal season.
“The first week of November is showing almost no demand for natural gas given the forecast models,” said Steve Kingston, a reporter for NatGasInvestor.com.
“In turn, we are going to see injections into November. Until demand shows up, I still would recommend caution rather than catch a falling knife, especially if December is warm as many forecasters are projecting.”
Natural gas storage levels currently sit at 3,814 Bcf. The record for natural gas storage levels is 3,929 Bcf which was set in 2012. Early estimates for the next three inventory reports after today’s report (median estimate at 69 Bcf) are 53, 45, and -3 Bcf according to NatGasInvestor.com. In turn, these estimates put end-of-injection season totals at record-breaking levels of 3,981 Bcf.
“Record-breaking gas in storage, no sign of significant future heating demand, warm December forecast, and El Nino… As I said, I remain cautious,” said Kingston.
To see the report at 10:30am EST, visit this link.
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