Natural Gas Storage Report Estimates for October 22, 2015

Natural Gas Storage Report Estimates for October 22, 2015

By Tim Silas | Reporter

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JACKSONVILLE, FL | 8:06AM – The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is set to release its Weekly Gas Storage Report on Thursday at 10:30am EST. Natural gas prices for November ’15 delivery were relatively flat early Thursday morning at $2.399 per mmBtu.

The median estimate of industry analysts is for an injection of 88 Bcf. If actually reported, the injection would be 12 Bcf less than the 2014 reported injection (94 Bcf) and six Bcf more than the five-year average (82 Bcf).

NatGasInvestor.com estimates that the injection will total 83 Bcf. The current range of estimates from industry analysts is for an injection from 82 Bcf to 95 Bcf. Wells Fargo, the top-ranked analyst according to NatGasInvestor’s Analyst Accuracy Rankings, estimates that the injection will total 82 Bcf.

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Natural gas prices fell sharply on Wednesday after natural gas traders and investors seemed to see that cold temperatures are unlikely to materialize in the early fall. As a result, storage levels are likely to increase close to four trillion cubic feet as injections could continue into the first two weeks of November.

“To put it bluntly, prices for the last few weeks until yesterday were falsely supported by hope. The GFS models were showing cold weather late in models that only disappeared as the models continued their runs,” said Steve Kingston, a reporter for NatGasInvestor.com. “Yesterday, hope gave way to risk reduction.”

Natural gas storage levels currently sit at 3,733 Bcf.

“As I stated last week, these last few reports of injection season will likely be met with increased volatility, which creates short-term trading opportunities in either direction. But I still don’t see any reason to create any long positions here even at these lows. With a majority of winter forecasts predicting a warm December and pending El Nino effects, we could easily see another leg down. Caution is the approach here.”

To see the report at 10:30am EST, visit this link.

To contact the reporter for this story, please email tim@natgasinvestor.com.

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