Cold Weaker in 6-10 Day Forecast Models, Stronger in 8-14 Day

Cold Weaker in 6-10 Day Forecast Models, Stronger in 8-14 Day

By Steve Kingston | Reporter


Natural gas futures for April ’15 delivery traded lower on Monday morning after the latest forecasting models showed weakened cold in the 6-10 day timeframe but stronger cold in the 8-14 day period.

Generally, the confidence factor is greater for shorter timeframes in GFS forecasting models.

The models show continued well-above average temperatures for most of the continental U.S. through the middle of this week. Temperatures then normalize with some areas of the Northeast seeing slightly below average temperatures.

While weekend forecast models show a strong push of artic air from March 20 to March 23, the strength of this cold air has become weaker in current models. However, the current models do show a massive cold air push that extends well into Florida around March 30.

According to WeatherBELL Analytics chief meteorologist Joe Bastardi, “winter is not done.” In his Saturday Summary over the weekend, Bastardi says that the recent warm-up is a false spring and that the period from March 20 to April 10 will see cold temperatures and threats of winter storms in the Northeast and amplifying back to the Plains.

Watch Bastardi’s Saturday Summary here:




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