Forecast Models Flip, “Seasonal” Temperatures Return for First Week of March

Forecast Models Flip, “Seasonal” Temperatures Return for First Week of March

By Steve Kingston | Reporter

GFS 2-m Air Temperatures forecasted for March 4, 2015. Source: TropicalTidbits.

While GFS forecasting models have remained very consistent in showing below average temperatures from mid-February through February 28, the first week of March has shown inconsistencies, which is typical in longer projections for the models.

Natural gas traders and investors are looking to the first week of March to determine if winter can continue and prevent storage levels from exceeding five year average levels by the end of the withdrawal season.

Below average temperatures engulfed much of the U.S. east of the Rockies over the weekend and the first part of this week. Severe snowstorms pounded the upper Midwest and Northeast while the Southeast experienced ice buildup and snow accumulations in some areas.

A second mass of Canadian artic air is set to plunge down on the continental U.S. on Thursday and Friday, bringing cold artic air as far south as Florida. Florida may see temperatures in the high 30’s in Miami while Tallahassee is forecasted to see temperatures in the 20’s.

The cold air continues during the last week of February as some areas in the upper Midwest and Northeast are forecasted to see temperatures 15-20 degrees below normal.

While previous models showed artic air continuing to push down from Canada in the first week of March, current GFS models are showing more seasonal temperatures. For the week ending March 6, last year’s storage withdrawal was -195 Bcf and the five year average is -121 Bcf.

Natural gas futures for March ’15 delivery fell on Tuesday to $2.759 per mmBtu as natural gas traders and investors anticipate a bearish natural gas storage report on Thursday.

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