GFS Models Consistent – Cold Air Engulfing Most of U.S. Next Week

GFS Models Consistent – Cold Air Engulfing Most of U.S. Next Week


The latest GFS models continue to show cold artic air coming down from Canada starting on Sunday and lasting through February 6.

After a mild weekend for most of the country, temperatures in the latest GFS model could stretch to 10 deg Celsius below normal in many areas late Sunday evening. Forecasters are paying particular attention to winter storm Linus which is expected to bring snowfall from the midwest to the northeast.

Natural gas traders and investors are looking forward to the snowfall in which heating demand days will likely increase.

However, given the oversupply in the natural gas market due to record production, traders and investors are counting on sustained cold as winter reaches its final stretch. The GFS models after February 7 are inconsistent and show above average temperatures in some parts of the country.

Natural gas futures settled on Friday at $2.69 mmBTU, the lowest closing price since September 2012.

The GFS 2m Temperature Anomaly is computed using a 30 year climatology (1981-2010) of the NCEP/CFSR reanalysis dataset. This forecast model is used by natural traders and investors to detect average, above average, or below average temperatures and thus natural gas demand.

Data provided by Levi Cowan at